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Montenegro referendum

Travel Forums Europe Montenegro referendum

1. Posted by ReinierNL (Full Member, 207 posts) 20 May '06 13:03

ReinierNL has indicated that this thread is about Serbia

With only one day to go until the poll on the independence of Montenegro, what do you think will be the consequences, if any, for tourism in the near future? If Montenegro will vote to become an independent state, when will it declare its independence? Immediately after the results?

2. Posted by neron (Full Member, 3 posts) 23 May '06 05:22

Hi,
Referendum in Montenegro has resulted in independence of that republic with circa 55.4% voting FOR and 44.6% voting AGAINST separation from the State Union. (bear in mind that 55% is a MINIMUM required by the EU in this case for the referendum to be considered succesful, which means that the option for independence had prevailed by mere 1300 votes!).
Either way, Montenegro and Serbia are today both independent states, with a slight majority in both republics supporting independence (even though Serbian citizens were not consulted via referendum in their republic). There are no ethnic tensions in Montenegro as we speak and nobody expects there would be any in close future. Both states should look upon their own futures which are meant to be very close tied and allied (as they have always been), taking that the peoples share same religion, language, customs, culture and are extremely mixed (32% of Montenegro's population is Serbian, and close to 50% of all Montenegrins live within Serbia). When it comes to tourism, in the long run I don't expect any disasterous impact upon Montenegro's tourist industry but frankly there's a real possibilty that many Serbs choose to skip Montenegro at least this year, which can be viewed through the number of Serbian visits that got smaller in recent years. However this is mostly due to the fact that swimming on the coast of Montenegro is almost equally expensive as swimming on any other Mediterranean hotspot such as Costa Azul, Spain, Greece and more expensive than lets say Turkey or Bulgaria (that record highest number of Serbian visits in advantage to Montenegro)!!. Most Serbian tourists will stay loyal to Montenegro's coast because of their cottages and real estate that they own; many will also be attracted by remains of Serbian culture down there (first Serbian state to become a kingdom was Dioclea/Montenegro in 11th century), as well as Serbian populated areas (such as Bay of Kotor and nortern coastlands, Budva f.e.); many will go simply because they can't get enough of its beauties.
My point stands therefore, that many will choose to skip spending holidays there this year, but I don't expect that trend to continue afterwards. It is up to Montenegrin authorities and their treatement, not only towards "Serbians" but towards Montenegrin Serbs as well, to show that Serbs are still the most welcomed nation in Montenegro, as they have always been (80% of the tourism relies on Serbian guests). In other words, Serbs need some persuation, support and good will of Montenegrin authorities in order to continue visiting, as many used to call it, "our sea", Adria.
That's my view of the situation,
Sincerely,
neron

3. Posted by Gelli (Travel Guru, 2457 posts) 23 May '06 05:37

I'm more interested (and always have been) in just how long it will take Vojvodina to pluck up the currage to also split?! they've always been teh quiet partner, but have for a while been getting more and more interested in the idea that perhaps they can also get away, and have been watching the Montenegran situation with interest.

Any ideas if/when it might go forward again?

And also what the response to Montengro's vitiry has been in Kosovo?

4. Posted by Cezar (Full Member, 16 posts) 24 May '06 11:13

Quoting Gelli

I'm more interested (and always have been) in just how long it will take Vojvodina to pluck up the currage to also split?! they've always been teh quiet partner, but have for a while been getting more and more interested in the idea that perhaps they can also get away, and have been watching the Montenegran situation with interest.

Any ideas if/when it might go forward again?

And also what the response to Montengro's vitiry has been in Kosovo?

You can't compare Montenegro with Vojvodina or Kosovo, simply because Montenegro was one out of six republics that made up old Yugoslav federation and they have every right to separate from Serbia. Whereas, Vojvodina and Kosovo are Serbian provinces. Kosovo is most likely to become an indipendent nation by the end of this year, but it all depends on how Russia and China vote on the issue. Vojvodina, on the other hand is more than 75% populated by Serbs, so it is hard to imagine Vojvodina becoming an indipendent.

5. Posted by neron (Full Member, 3 posts) 31 May '06 09:34

[Vojvodina, on the other hand is more than 75% populated by Serbs]- Vojvodina's Serbs today consist about 65% (not 75% or more) of the overall provincial population. Before 1991 Serbs have consisted "only" 55% of its population. Second largest ethnic group is that of Hungarians, who make a 15% share of the population, followed by Slovaks, Croats, Romanians, Bunjevci, Rusyns, some Germans etc.
I agree with your view on the parallel that's beeing drawn between Kosovo and Vojvodina on one hand, and Montenegro, on the other hand. Montenegro has a supreme right on determination that's guaranteed under its constitution (as it was under the former Yugoslav federal constitutions). Vojvodina and Kosovo are Serbian provinces within its sovereign borders and cannot be dealt with in the same manner. Basic documents that back this Serbian argument was the London Peace Treaty of 1913, when Kosovo was included into the Serbian Kingdom, and has never left its sphere of dominion since (except in wartime). Between 1974 and 1990 Kosovo has had its seat within the Federal Assembly but has formally remained Serbian, even though it could have been perceived differently.
neron