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81. Posted by Sam I Am (Admin 5588 posts) 9y

Quoting Mel.

Quoting mikeyBoab

Quoting Sam I Am

They'll find some way to get whatever they need into the country anyway.

Definitely. The Chinese aren't happy about imposing UN sanctions at all and they hold a permanent seat on the UN security council. Similar situation with the Russians.

If heavy sanctions are imposed on the countries supplying arms to Burma, they will lose more money, than they would have gained, from supplying the arms. It would not be worthwhile for them to veto the arms embargo.

That's just semantics Mel. If there is money to be made, someone will find a way of doing it. It most likely won't be a government supplying the arms, but that's not to say they don't know about it. Or it could be a case of Norway sells some guns to the US, US sells to their friends in Afghanistan, Afghanistan magic happens and guns mystically end up in Burma - from Norway. This is just the way it works unfortunately and denying it doesn't change that :(

Regarding the earlier post, if there is an embargo on guns the leaders will use even less money on infrastructure and things that benefit the people, as they will need to pay a premium for their weapons. Any embargo therefore hurts the people. The question is whether in the long run it helps them or not. Saying "They haven't got anything anyway, so what is the government going to take away or deprive them of when an embargo is in place?" is kind of denigrating and you should consider that things can ALWAYS be worse, no matter how bad they look (sorry, is that a very pessimistic view :)).

82. Posted by Mel. (Travel Guru 4567 posts) 9y

The more difficult it's made for the Burmese junta to buy arms, the better it is. Of course there's plenty of dirty tricks, so it'll never be 100% embargo, but the junta would definitely have trouble.

As for them taking away spendings on the population: I think that the few breadcrumbs given to the population won't be missed much. I again refer to South Africa - the boycott helped bringing changes about and there were more loopholes in the boycott against SA than there would be in one against Burma.

Add to that the psychological effects: whatever the junta doesn't give the people would make the people realize that the world is aware of their situation, just as the junta knows it's being watched.

83. Posted by Isadora (Travel Guru 13926 posts) 9y

Quoting Mel.

The more difficult it's made for the Burmese junta to buy arms, the better it is. Of course there's plenty of dirty tricks, so it'll never be 100% embargo, but the junta would definitely have trouble.

As for them taking away spendings on the population: I think that the few breadcrumbs given to the population won't be missed much. I again refer to South Africa - the boycott helped bringing changes about and there were more loopholes in the boycott against SA than there would be in one against Burma.

Add to that the psychological effects: whatever the junta doesn't give the people would make the people realize that the world is aware of their situation, just as the junta knows it's being watched.

Mel, you may find this UN paper of interest. Though it is a few years old, it does address the different (smart) sanctions imposed on several countries and the effectiveness of those actions. South Africa is considered a failure as the arms embargo did not curtail S. Africa's ability to obtain arms and they were able to continue building their own. The sanctions against the National Union for the Total Independence of Angola (UNITA) also failed - allowing UNITA to supply weapons to 300,000 soldiers and continue the fight against the Angolan government.

Though the UN does feel the use of smart sanctions (those targeting specific areas such as arms and travel) have little impact from a humanitarian standpoint, the UN is also ill-equipped to monitor any such situation effectively. Regardlss how good sanctions look on paper, in the end the 'trickle-down factor" always comes into play and it is the general public who ultimately suffer.

Mikey is correct with items such as food and medicine being brought into the mix. I don't know of an alternative that would bring change but the people will always suffer more than the government and/or military.

84. Posted by Mel. (Travel Guru 4567 posts) 9y

SA is a good example of the psychological effect of the embargo. Only the dodgiest of dealers touched that government and then only with a bargepole. At the time, leftists were in regular contact with ANC representatives who urged everyone to keep up the sanctions, as the hardship endured by the black South Africans, to them, felt like something was being done, the world was paying attention and not giving up.

[ Edit: Edited on Oct 2, 2007, at 7:53 AM by Mel. ]

85. Posted by Mel. (Travel Guru 4567 posts) 9y

http://www.news.com.au/heraldsun/story/0,21985,22517905-5005961,00.html

Post 86 was removed by a moderator
87. Posted by Mel. (Travel Guru 4567 posts) 9y

Message I received, from a Burmese member of TP
I have removed 2 lines of personal information, from the message

Life of Myanmar people!

Dear Mel,

I will be always thanks for you. When Burma becomes in good situation, u r welcome to visit. I bet that you have a lot of things to enjoy in Burma.

First of all, we need to get human rights. Today Mr. Gambri went back to Singapore and then to New York, he didn't mention anything. I dont know how UN can help Burma. Right now inside Burma, the situation are very tight and not easy to demonstrate. A lot of security and they arrested a lot of people who make demonstration and the people who watched demonstration. But I belive that the people who had been catched, their lives are hopeless, don't know how many year they have to stay in Jail and how they will cruel. I really hate Sen. General Than Shwe who give order to soliders to shoot. One of the carnel who don't want to shoot and don't give order to his soldiers to shoot, now he had been arrested and his family are also under house arrested, all of their belongings are kept by government. If someone who don't obey their order, they will not have future, they are like the people who die ( i.e hopeless for the whole life, have to stay in the jail for entire life ).

That's why some of the people who are really willing to demonstrate also they are scare, acutally no one like Military government in Myanmar excpet the group who got really chance from Government ( their people ).

Still don't know how is Myanmar people's future will be. I just can do is praying and can annouce to other.

By the way, Summer Olympics game for 2007 held in Shanghai ( China ) just today, they started opening celemonry today.

I belive that Myanmar government will keep cheating to all over the world. Pray the powerful countries don't belive them and care about Myanmar case.

Even our FM (foregin minister) cheat at UN today at newyork. Burmese people from New york yelled him and hit him.

Our Sen. General Than Shwe's wife is in Dubai with her close realtive ( 13 people ) check in at the tallest hotel in Dubai ( the most expensive ). They just gave their name for show at hotel , actually they stayed at one luxury home in the city and one at beaches. They took all USD $ from Myanmar , which is own by national airline and another new airline. Now that company have no $ to give salalry to the staff. There are some Myanmar in Dubai also so Than Shwe's wife and groups have to go out with bodyguard, worry for assisnate.

Thanks for yr time

02.10.2007

[ Edit: Edited on Oct 2, 2007, at 12:16 PM by Mel. ]

88. Posted by Sam I Am (Admin 5588 posts) 9y

Hi Mel,

Could you please get the members to post themselves? This whole "going through someone else" thing is a little strange and if the member has a problem with their name being known, they could just delete their name from their profile.

Personally I'm very sceptical of this kind of posting and where/who it comes from, as well as their own biased agenda's, whether political or otherwise.

Don't get me wrong, I support the Burmese in this one, but I just really think there are far better representatives for the Burmese people giving more factually founded arguments all over the web.

Sam

Post 89 was removed by a moderator
90. Posted by Mel. (Travel Guru 4567 posts) 9y

Here is a link to Mizzima News.
It is run by Burmese expatriates.

www.mizzima.com

I wonder how long the Amnesty reports for Burma will be this year.

[ Edit: Edited on Oct 4, 2007, at 3:22 AM by Mel. ]

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