i just got my 12 month return flights to bangkok in the post today! i'm very much hoping to fly out there on 7th august for at least 6 months, but if this bird flu business gets out of hand between now and then i guess i won't go. what do people think is likely to happen? should i be worried yet? at the moment i'm just very excited about my proposed trip through thailand, malaysia, laos, vietnam, and cambodia. from what i can gather bird flu isn't a major problem just yet. let's hope it remains that way. joey
it doesn't matter whether you will be in SE Asia or here - the virus will spread fast everywhere.
Some scientists do estimate that up to 100 mln would die - a few hundred thousand in the UK alone. (see the link posted before).
what is important is to take care of you health/immune system now.
The so-called "Spanish Flu" l9l8 killed around 24 million
Hit young and strong as well as old and feble. Island of
Guam lost about 75% of population
Just to add to the scare-mongering, i copied this from an article on the news today because the UK government has announced that it is stockpiling 'anti-viral' drugs in case of a bird flu pandemic. This statement was also added "It would not be possible to create a vaccine against the flu until the strain causing any pandemic was known. This could take months to develop, meaning anti-viral treatment would be the first line of defence."
It went on to say that anti-viral drugs are not a cure just a first line of defence.
I don't know if it's just here in the uk, but every year or so there seems to be something announced that will decimate the population. We've had Sars, Mad Cow, Foot and Mouth, Al-Queda taking out London with 'dirty bombs', plus numerous others and now Bird Flu.
unfortunately large epidemics do happen periodically throuthout the history - flu virus mutates every year with an eccesive use of medications. (There is a theory that controlling bacterias through drugs and clining allows viruses to develop faster).
SARS actually is a human form of a virus closely related to Birds Flu virus - and the next time it might just get out of controll.
the UK government has finally assigned 180 mln pounds to buy 15 mln doses of an antiviral drug - however it would take some 2 years to stockpile it. So far there is only one pharmaceutical company in the world making this drug - with a turnout of 4 mln doses per year.
The drug must be taken within 48 hours from the first symptoms appearing.
The mortality rate from the bird flu is some 70% because patients are diagnosed too late for the drugs to work.
Be afraid ! Be very afraid
americans claim now to have the vaccine - but first it has to be tasted on humans. Thai government most probably will allow it - but it would take 2 months to go through the formal procedures.
Vietnam already tested their vaccine in monkeys - with a positive effect. The test on humans can start in September - and the first mass supply of the vaccine expected only at the end of 2006.
The only antiviral medicine to alleviate the symptoms of flu takes 1 year to make - that's why it's sold now up to 5 pounds/$10 per tablet.
7 March 2005
The Ministry of Health in Viet Nam has confirmed an additional four cases of human infection with H5N1 avian influenza.
Great. So the main places are where I happen to be going to this April-June. Iam not the kind of person to just cancel my flight and give up though. I`ll just have to stay away from the evil chickens and farms.