The Effect of 90% Effective Vaccine on Aviation Sector

Travel Forums Off Topic The Effect of 90% Effective Vaccine on Aviation Sector

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1. Posted by meltintotheair (Budding Member 6 posts) 48w Star this if you like it!

Hello dears,

As some of you know, Pfizer have announced that they already improved 90% effective vaccine against coronavirus. I have been following the shares of airline companies for a while. For the first time in 2020, the share values of airline companies increased by around 10% in one day. For example, on Monday (November 9), THYAO's value increased by 9.99%. This increase is interpreted as an indicator of economic return to normal. However, there is a question I am curious about. How do you think the prices of flight tickets will be affected from now on? Again, to give an example from TK, ticket prices of TK are still very close to the previous year, if this 10% growth continues, how will ticket prices be affected by this situation? I'm not a brocker, but I've been interested in the stock market from the beginning of the quarantine.
I hope it was not so irrelevant with the forum, I thought it would be a good discussion for off topic. :)

2. Posted by berner256 (Moderator 1525 posts) 48w Star this if you like it!

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Methinks a discussion on investing in airline stocks, including those of Turk Hava Yollari (Turkish Airlines), is off topic. As to the direction of ticket prices, it is unknowable at this point, although there is much speculation. Much depends on what happens to the various segments of the market (for example, will lack of premium business travel eventually drive up prices for leisure travelers?).

meltintotheair has previously disclosed participation in TK's Miles&Smiles loyalty program and has discussed TK's fares and travel to Turkey and the region.

[ Edit: Edited on 12-Nov-2020, 12:02 GMT by berner256 ]

3. Posted by AndyF (Moderator 2418 posts) 48w 2 Star this if you like it!

Quoting berner256

Methinks a discussion on investing in airline stocks, including those of Turk Hava Yollari (Turkish Airlines), is off topic.

The Off Topic forum is meant to be a bit more loosely moderated. We'll see if anyone is interested in discussing it. If it gets spammy I'll be on it. :)

4. Posted by Beausoleil (Travel Guru 1781 posts) 48w Star this if you like it!

First, no one can predict the future. Second, prices reflect demand so if more people want to fly, prices will go up. If air travel doesn't improve by quite a bit, prices will stay the same or possibly go lower and more carriers will go out of business.

In other words, no one knows what will happen but I guess it's fun to make a guess.

5. Posted by Peter (Admin 7017 posts) 48w Star this if you like it!

There's still a long way to go yet with the Pfizer vaccine. For example, we don't how long it is effective for. Either way, it does look like at some point next year there will be a vaccine starting to do the rounds. I imagine it will go to front line health care workers, high risk populations, etc first. Then to travellers after that.

It might be that airlines require a certificate of vaccination prior to travel. Travel to Australia for example certainly won't open up until there is a vaccine in place for any inbound travellers.

Airlines are bleeding cash. Although I think it's almost certain that the aviation industry will bounce back as a whole, it's much harder to predict which airlines will manage to survive until that point.

6. Posted by 55vineyard (Full Member 154 posts) 48w Star this if you like it!

Can the airlines legally require someone to get a vaccine? What about those anti vaccine people who do not get their kids vaccinated for measles (which is also highly contagious) and other childhood diseases? People with religious beliefs?
Seems like it would be a lot cheaper and easier, IF the various regulatory bodies allow it, to request a rapid COVID test (results available in 15 minutes).

7. Posted by berner256 (Moderator 1525 posts) 48w 1 Star this if you like it!

If governments, such as Australia, require a certificate of vaccination for entry, then an airline most likely would require passengers on a flight there to show proof of vaccination before departing. If a passenger lacked a certificate, and was denied entry because of that, the airline most likely would be required to carry that passenger back to the point of origin. No airline wants to do that.

Some countries require proof of vaccination against yellow fever as a condition for entry. Absent that proof immigration officials can deny entry, even if a traveler has a valid visa.

8. Posted by ToonSarah (Travel Guru 1377 posts) 48w 1 Star this if you like it!

Yes, I've been thinking this could be very much like the situation with the yellow fever vaccination certificates required by some countries - no certificate, no entry. And airlines will check you have it before boarding because they don't want to be stuck with you should you be refused entry!

Personally I will feel it's a small price to pay for the freedom to travel, but then, I'm not an anti-vaxer and will want to have it anyway. The sooner the better as far as I'm concerned!

9. Posted by Teoni (Travel Guru 1742 posts) 48w Star this if you like it!

I remember reading that when the small pox vaccine become easily available that certain countries would require proof of vaccination for entry. Apart from health I don't know if there were exemptions for personal belief at the time. But it does show that if it was done once it can certainly be done again.

10. Posted by Peter (Admin 7017 posts) 48w Star this if you like it!

I feel Australia is very likely to have some kind of vaccination requirement.

The workaround for that might be that

a) certain origin countries won't have that requirement - ie. NZ
b) if you don't want to get the vaccination for whatever reason (immunocompromised perhaps), you could maybe opt out but then you'd have to go into a quarantine hotel for 2 weeks like what is happening now.