The Effect of 90% Effective Vaccine on Aviation Sector

Travel Forums Off Topic The Effect of 90% Effective Vaccine on Aviation Sector

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11. Posted by AndyF (Moderator 2260 posts) 22w Star this if you like it!

Quoting Peter

The workaround for that might be that

a) certain origin countries won't have that requirement - ie. NZ
b) if you don't want to get the vaccination for whatever reason (immunocompromised perhaps), you could maybe opt out but then you'd have to go into a quarantine hotel for 2 weeks like what is happening now.

With the vaccines appearing to be "only" something on the order of 90% effective, I think that countries like NZ which are currently basically covid-free will give up that status in order to reopen travel. Vaccinated travellers will take it in, so Kiwis will need to be vaccinated too, so they may well not be exempt from other countries vaccine rules. (If things end up being done rationally rather than politically!)

In the case of existing vaccine requirements like yellow fever, I've not heard of alternatives like quarantine hotels. I thought it was simply a case of show your proof of vaccination to travel. I suspect it may be the case for this too. Although of course it's likely to be a mishmash of rules in different places.

12. Posted by Peter (Admin 7008 posts) 22w Star this if you like it!

Actually, I'm a bit unsure on what the current crop of vaccine candidates actually achieves. It seems maybe it only helps stop the individual from getting sick, but they can still transfer it to other people?

If so, then I guess the goal will in fact be to give everyone in Australia the chance to vaccinate, then open up and let people in regardless of their vaccination status.

13. Posted by AndyF (Moderator 2260 posts) 22w Star this if you like it!

Quoting Peter

Actually, I'm a bit unsure on what the current crop of vaccine candidates actually achieves. It seems maybe it only helps stop the individual from getting sick, but they can still transfer it to other people?

There's little data yet. Only the Oxford vaccine group (I've heard) have been swab testing to monitor how much people may be spreaders even if themselves protected. The hope and expectation (as yet unconfirmed) is that these vaccines should protect in both ways.

I heard today that there are commitments to make 3.5bn doses of vaccine so far, so yes it looks like the plan is to offer it to everyone worldwide including relatively unaffected countries. They're throwing the book at this.

14. Posted by nicolaitan (Budding Member 252 posts) 20w Star this if you like it!

90% effective = 10% ineffective.
that is a lot of people without good response - one in ten people on a basketball court, better than one in a twelve person jury box.
and apparently the pfizer product makes many people really sick for up to three days - makes one wonder how many will pass on the required second dose.

on another note - i read that new zealand is planning on setting up covid camps to isolate those infected whether they want to go or not. brings back sad memories of world war II. is this really true or just "fake news"?

15. Posted by Peter (Admin 7008 posts) 20w Star this if you like it!

Quoting nicolaitan

on another note - i read that new zealand is planning on setting up covid camps to isolate those infected whether they want to go or not. brings back sad memories of world war II. is this really true or just "fake news"?

Have you been watching Fox News, because that seems to be where this fake info came from? The camps being referred to are actually the quarantine hotels and they are for returned travellers - not any infected people.

The closest you'll find to a camp like you're describing is Darwin's Howard Springs quarantine camp. Again though, it's for returned travellers, not to isolate anyone infected.

In Aus and I'm pretty sure NZ, when someone is diagnosed with COVID, they (and their close contacts) are told to isolate at home for 2 weeks / until they get the all clear. It is not an optional isolation. In Aus that has now also been extended to include contacts of contacts. Not sure if NZ is doing the same.

[ Edit: Edited on 27-Nov-2020, 03:56 GMT by Peter ]

Post 16 was removed by a moderator
17. Posted by ToonSarah (Travel Guru 1377 posts) 20w 1 Star this if you like it!

Quoting nicolaitan

90% effective = 10% ineffective.

The average flu vaccine is around 50% effective yet we rely on that each winter. The point of the vaccine is not just to protect individuals but to limit the spread of the virus as it will have far fewer people to 'invade'. With that level of protection we should be able to drive the R number down to a point where the risk becomes minimal, I would hope.

18. Posted by nicolaitan (Budding Member 252 posts) 20w Star this if you like it!

peter - got that information from a newspaper article forwarded to me (by a harris supporter). But yes, origination with fox news is far from unlikely. by going to fox, cnn, and msnbc each day it is possible to get news from three totally unrelated planets in one sitting, all self-serving.

TS - if people won't wear masks, i suspect interest in these vaccines will be lower than adequate to get back to R1 where new york was just a few short months ago. this basically untested vaccine could cause its own set of problems including the delayed complications just now being described six months later including neurologic problems.

19. Posted by Teoni (Travel Guru 1552 posts) 20w Star this if you like it!

Considering the original premise was about vaccines and flying this article might give a hint to the future:

A bit premature': global airline body distances itself from Qantas vaccine stance

[ Edit: Edited on 27-Nov-2020, 14:26 GMT by Teoni ]

20. Posted by Borisborough (Moderator 1586 posts) 20w Star this if you like it!

Quoting nicolaitan

i read that new zealand is planning on setting up covid camps to isolate those infected whether they want to go or not. brings back sad memories of world war II.

Haha - you can go on thinking that New Zealand has everyone in Covid camps, all rounded up just like WWII (although personally, I have no memories of WWII). We're fine with whatever you want to think. In the meantime, we'll continue meeting up for barbies, or sport or Christmas or music or whatever else we always do as normal - on the beach, at the pub, in school. Our only restriction is that face-masks must be worn on public transport in Auckland. Enjoy your Thanksgiving weekend.